The mayor's race that isn't there

10 November 2000

Good news for those of you who bite your fingernails to the quick during the presidential race. There's relief in sight: the upcoming mayor's race in Boston.

Almost unbelievably, it appears that Mayor Thomas Menino will face no serious challengers in his bid for a third term. The mayor was unopposed in 1997 when he ran for re-election. Now, the position that Menino himself calls "the best job in America" again will apparently have no other applicants.

There is only a handful of people out there who are plausible mayoral candidates for 2001, the two most likely of whom are at- large City Councilors Francis "Mickey" Roache and Peggy Davis- Mullen.

It ain't gonna happen.

Roache is 64 but far younger. A spare, athletic man, he was once a cop and served as police commissioner under former Mayor Raymond Flynn from 1985 through 1993. He unsuccessfully ran for mayor himself, in 1993, when Flynn left to become ambassador to the Vatican.

Roache redeemed himself two years later, running for and winning a seat on the City Council. Soft-spoken and almost unassuming, Roache moves easily around the city. He's well liked in almost all of Boston's often fractious neighborhoods. In 1997 and 1999 he was reelected with no trouble, the top Council vote getter each time.

Roache has not made a career out of bashing Menino - it's more his resume and his citywide popularity that cause others to see him as a likely mayoral challenger. Not so with Davis-Mullen. In many respects Roache's opposite, she has spent her seven years on the Council being the anti-Menino.

A South Boston native, Davis-Mullen won her City Council seat in 1993, the same year Menino was first elected mayor. Originally running as a neighborhood schools advocate, she now takes on Menino at every turn.

Davis-Mullen is a dynamic politician, and her almost palpable antipathy for Menino has made her name well known around the city.

But her brash and aggressive style has come at a price: Unlike Roache, who is regarded with affection, she provokes strong reactions both pro and con. That has played out electorally: Davis-Mullen has had to struggle in each election. She has largely lost her South Boston base - indeed, she moved to West Roxbury last year - and instead has cobbled together her wins by finding pockets of votes in neighborhoods across the city.

Roache's official position is that he will "look at the mayor's race." But in fact, he is making no moves to oppose Menino. He has almost no money in the bank and he hasn't worked to develop a rationale for why Menino should be replaced - or why he would be the one to do it. Indeed, Roache calls Menino "a decent guy."

More importantly, Roache thinks the odds of beating the mayor are slim (Menino's in "really good shape," Roache says) and he plainly enjoys being city councilor, a job he would have to give up if he took on the mayor.

Davis-Mullen's take on the matter is more complex. Running against Menino would probably give her a lot of psychic satisfaction. Menino's forces have tried to defeat Davis-Mullen in her re-election bids before. "I feel like I've run against him every time," Davis- Mullen says. "The wild woman within me says, `Why not run against him directly?' "

But intellectually she knows it's a lost cause. Menino remains extraordinarily popular, with favorability ratings in excess of 70 percent. The mayor is a relentless fund-raiser; Davis-Mullen has less than $10,000. She is taking courses at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, has three young children and is deeply reluctant to expose herself or her family to a hard, bitter and ultimately losing campaign.

Moreover, running against an incumbent requires a challenger to persuade voters that there is a compelling reason to change.

As even Davis-Mullen admits, that compelling reason is hard to identify. Boston is doing well. The economy is strong, people are employed, the city looks good and it's a safe place in which to live. Eight years ago people were moving out of the city. Now they're moving in.

Certainly there are discontents. Most prominently, Menino has lately bobbled a number of high-profile development issues, including Fenway Park and the South Boston waterfront. But issues such as these are profoundly local in nature. Few voters in Brighton, Mattapan or Hyde Park are going to vote against Menino because they think a building on Fan Pier is too tall.

Aside from Roache and Davis-Mullen, is there anyone else? Suffolk County District Attorney Ralph Martin and House Speaker Tom Finneran (D-Mattapan) are possibilities, but neither has expressed much interest in battling Menino. After that, there is almost no one left who could mount a credible campaign.

Boston is a city that still likes to think of politics as an all- consuming, contact sport. Yet it now faces the disturbing prospect that, for a second time in a row, no new players will take to the field. That's great for the defending champion. It's not so good for the spectators.