Lynch will benefit from a liberal split

31 August 2001

Barring some major, unexpected event, it appears that South Boston's Stephen Lynch will win the Democratic nomination for the 9th Congressional District - and he will do so despite the fact that well over half the voters would just as soon have someone else.

The conventional wisdom is that voters pay little attention to political races during the summer months. It is only after Labor Day, with the kids in school and the Cape just a traffic-clogged memory, that their minds turn to the races at hand.

With the election only 11 days away, that time is now. Three of the state senators in this race - Lynch, Cheryl Jacques and Brian Joyce - are making major TV buys. Lynch and Jacques have each raised a million dollars; Joyce somewhat less. TV viewers will find the ads hard to escape.

But to what end?

Many voters have already made up their minds. Each camp's polls differ from the others in details, but all of them put Lynch in front. The best guess is that he has between 30 percent and 35 percent of the vote. Jacques and Joyce are somewhere between 15 percent and 20 percent each, and the other candidates (Marc Pacheco, William Sinnott and John Taylor) each get 10 percent or less.

Lynch's more conservative politics may be out of sync with the majority of the district, but he has two key advantages: turnout and a divided opposition.

One key truism about elections is that people do not have to vote - and that for the most part, they don't. That phenomenon is magnified in the case of this special election where there is only one race on the ballot.

It's a phenomenon that in particular helps Lynch. He is from a community, South Boston, that usually records the highest turnout in the city. Voting is part of the neighborhood's culture. Moreover, other Boston neighborhoods, such as West Roxbury, also know how to vote. That means that Boston votes will end up accounting for much higher share of the total vote than the city's 40 percent of the district's population. And most of those will support Lynch, the only Boston candidate.

It was this thinking that last spring made Lynch an early front- runner, especially with the departure of Max Kennedy from the field. Still, Lynch was by no means a shoo-in. Joyce also had a base in Milton, Randolph and Canton and, like Lynch, could also count on a strong turnout. Alone that wasn't enough to beat Lynch, but Joyce had a seeming ace up his sleeve: Unlike Lynch, he was pro-choice.

Joyce's journey to that position was, to be kind, complex. He once had campaigned as a pro-life candidate and his switch made many doubt his bona fides. Nevertheless, in a district where about 70 percent of voters call themselves pro-choice, Joyce had the ability to reach outside his base and attract the so-called progressive voter who found Lynch to be too conservative.

And then in July Jacques entered the race. Jacques, whose bona fides on abortion and other progressive issues are decidedly not in question, almost instantly won away votes Joyce had been counting on. She presented herself as a different candidate, one who hoped to get votes based on issues rather than the turnout of the base she happened to represent.

Can either Jacques or Joyce pull off an upset?

Both have launched aggressive attacks on Lynch. Joyce is comparing Lynch to President George W. Bush, calling one Bush and the other Bush Lite. Jacques is running TV ads critical of Lynch's past positions on gun control.

It is doubtful either will do much damage. Lynch's base remains strong and he appeals as well to the one-third of the voters who call themselves pro-life.

What is more important, Jacques' and Joyce's enemy is not Lynch. It is each other. They cut up the anti-Lynch vote. A solid 60 percent of the electorate is seemingly willing to vote for someone other than Lynch, but it is split in its choices.

It's a common situation. In 1998, Michael Capuano won the 8th Congressional District primary race with 23 percent of the vote. And in his first race for Congress, Joe Moakley lost to Louise Day Hicks in a similar circumstance, with Hicks' votes just enough to put her over the top in a crowded Democratic field.

All of which raises an interesting possibility. One year from now the regular election will be held for statewide and federal seats, including the 9th District. Lynch (if he is elected) could possibly face the same kind of challenge Moakley once successfully laid on Hicks: an independent liberal running against the more conservative incumbent. Jacques and Joyce, both with strong campaigns and the clear ability to raise money, may yet have their day.