Op-Ed; Gov's race in flux and Tolman's in it

THOMAS M. KEANE JR.
827 words
30 August 2002
Boston Herald
All Editions
023
English
(Copyright 2002)

Warren Tolman's campaign for governor has for some time seemed like a quixotic quest. Dead last in the polls and with more than 60 percent of voters saying they didn't even know who he was, Tolman seemed like an afterthought to a field dominated by heavyweights such as state Treasurer Shannon O'Brien, former Labor Secretary Robert Reich and Senate President Tom Birmingham.

That's no longer the case. Tolman's candidacy is surging. His numbers, as shown in just released polls by both the Herald and the Globe, have improved markedly. And much of the reason for that can be attributed to TV ads that seem to violate every rule in the campaign playbook.

Tolman has not had an easy time of it. The only Clean Elections candidate in the race, he saw his campaign drifting listlessly for months as the Legislature refused to appropriate money necessary to fund the law. With almost no resources, he had minimal staff, little media presence, and no credibility among the state's movers and shakers. It was a humiliating comedown for a man who four years ago had been the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor.

It took a showdown between the Supreme Judicial Court and the Legislature before a deal was cut to fund Clean Elections candidates. For Tolman, it was almost too late. In fact, it was only with the aid of fellow candidate Steve Grossman (who has since dropped out of the race) that Tolman was able to squeak onto the ballot at the Democratic State Convention. And it wasn't until this summer that all of Tolman's money came through.

But when it finally came through, it came through big time: Tolman has collected $3.6 million. That gives him more free cash to spend than anyone else and the opportunity, late in the game, to try to push himself forward.

Tolman has now run four ads. The first two, launched at the end of July, were harshly negative attacks on House Speaker Thomas Finneran. Political pros cringed at them. First ads, they argued, should contain positive messages, particularly when the candidate is as unknown to the public as Tolman. The ads should introduce the candidate to voters.

Tolman's ads were almost deliberately offensive. Columnists and editorialists excoriated Tolman, denouncing him for describing the existing political system as "corrupt" and mocking his attacks on a politician who, after all, was not even in the race for governor.

But the spots got people talking. In a summer where everyone else's commercials were pablum, Tolman's stood out. Love 'em or hate 'em, all of a sudden, people knew who Tolman was.

Tolman's third and fourth commercials were less harsh but equally memorable. Tolman is bald; like Robert Reich's height, it's a physical characteristic that is almost impossible to ignore.

Reich's approach has been to make short-people jokes. He has done so incessantly and to such a degree that at times it has seemed to diminish the candidate himself.

Tolman took an opposite, bald-is-beautiful tack. In one commercial, his wife appears with him, calling him, "hot." In another, the closing line is, "You don't have to be bald to be on board." It's been a clever tactic. Tolman's height, angular features, and lack of hair make him appear intimidating. The ads humanize him without mocking him.

Tolman's ads have cut through the clutter. They were obviously risky, but Tolman's approach was to go for broke - and given his standings in the polls, he probably had little choice. Moreover, Tolman will be spending more than $500,000 a week on television over the next three weeks. Eventually, everyone will know who he is.

Yet, commercials alone don't win races. They can make sure a candidate is noticed and is heard. But whom voters pick depends on what they want - and so far, it has appeared they want the status quo.

For some time O'Brien, treasurer and friend of Finneran, has enjoyed a comfortable lead. The reformist messages of both Tolman and Reich have appealed, at best, to a small minority of voters.

There are signs, however, that the race now is in flux. O'Brien is faltering, her record and her integrity both under attack. Meanwhile, Birmingham, also tagged as an insider, is losing support.

This presents an opportunity for Reich and Tolman. Reich still has better standing in the polls, but lacks Tolman's money and organization. The challenge for both men is to position themselves as the obvious alternative if, and when, Democratic voters turn against O'Brien. Tolman may not end up as voters' choice, but he clearly should no longer be written off.

Tom Keane can be reached at tomkeane@tomkeane.com.

Caption: TOLMAN: He's catchin' on

Document bhld000020020830dy8u0006d