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EDITORIAL
Op-Ed; Dems lack reason to abandon O'Brien
THOMAS M. KEANE JR.

11/01/2002
Boston Herald
All Editions
027
(Copyright 2002)

Mitt Romney won last Tuesday's debate. Odds are, Shannon O'Brien will win next Tuesday's election.

If you're O'Brien, that's not a bad trade-off.

At least on style, Romney bested O'Brien in their last face-to- face confrontation. He answered questions directly while she avoided them. Like a fighter plane throwing out chaff to fool an oncoming missile, she'd toss out a slew of often irrelevant responses, hoping the original question would be forgotten. In fact, her post-debate claim that Romney's use of the word "unbecoming" was sexist is just more chaff designed to divert attention from her debate performance. (Sexist? "Conduct unbecoming" is a military term.)

Moreover, Romney took a higher road, taking his time to discuss issues while O'Brien used hers to tear him down. And overall, he seemed calmer and more collected, whereas she evinced an air of desperation.

But this is an election for governor, not a debate competition. True, polls show the two candidates neck-and-neck. But the fundamentals are strongly in O'Brien's favor.

The reason is straightforward: Massachusetts is a Democratic state. Voters will vote for the Democrat unless given some compelling reason to do otherwise.

Because the Massachusetts GOP is so startlingly weak (Democrats outnumber Republicans 3-1), it can win the governorship only if it persuades Democrats to defect. That happened in 1990 - William Weld's first election - and some of the same themes of that election played out in the 1994 and 1998 contests.

But the bad news for Republicans in 2002 is that the elements that handed them victories back then simply aren't present today.

In 1990, Massachusetts was in the midst of a recession. Voters blamed it on outgoing Gov. Michael Dukakis. Dukakis and the Legislature decided to solve the budget gap through sweeping new tax hikes, including a new tax on services.

Voters were furious.

And then, by choosing John Silber, president of Boston University, as their nominee, Democrats just made things worse.

Silber was a brilliant, irascible man known for his "Silber Shockers" - blunt talk that seemed calculated to offend Democratic interest groups. Many stalwart Democrats simply sat out the election. Boston Mayor Ray Flynn, for example, refused to help Silber and instead spent Election Day in Florida.

And, in the last week of the campaign, an ornery and hostile Silber had a disastrous, one-on-one interview with popular TV anchor Natalie Jacobsen. Silber seemed unbalanced, a man always on the verge of exploding.

Weld - genial, tolerant, smart - looked moderate and stable in contrast. To some, he seemed more like a real Democrat than did Silber. Even so, Weld just eked out a victory by only 77,000 votes.

In 1994, Weld, then a popular incumbent, outspent challenger Mark Roosevelt 5-1. Democrats, disdainful of the liberal Roosevelt, rallied to Weld's side. In 1998, a similar thing happened. Democrats were much more comfortable with Weld's handpicked successor, Paul Cellucci. House Speaker Thomas Finneran openly worried that Scott Harshbarger, the Democrat's nominee, was a member of the "loony left." Boston Mayor Thomas Menino gave him a tepid endorsement and did little to help.

This year couldn't be more different. The state may be in recession, but the anger of 1990 hasn't materialized. And, of course, it's a Republican who has been at the helm. O'Brien may be tough on Romney, but she's no lefty; her centrist approach appeals to critical middle-class voters. Unlike Silber, she doesn't rant and rave. Instead, she has focused on raising money and building a strong field organization.

Her work has paid off. The Democrats have raised enough money to match the Republicans. The party is solidly behind its nominee. Menino and other pols have committed their field organizations to her victory. And while in years past Republicans were able to put out lengthy lists of prominent Democrats supporting their nominee, this time they're pretty much down to two: ex-Boston City Councilor Peggy Davis Mullen (who lost big to Menino in 2001) and the mayor of Salt Lake City.

Whoop-de-doo.

Does Romney have a chance? The buzz after the most recent debate was that he came off as more likeable - more becoming, if you will - than O'Brien. If that holds, some think, it could give him enough momentum to top O'Brien.

But I'm skeptical. Many people personally like O'Brien too. More importantly, just as elections aren't debating contests, nor are they the Dating Game. We're looking for a governor, not a buddy. Absent reason to bolt their party, Democrats will stay with their nominee. And if they do, O'Brien wins.

Tom Keane can be reached at tomkeane@tomkeane.com.

Caption: ROMNEY: Winning debates may not make him gov.