Let's make new year work for everyone

31 December 2003

Echoing George Bush to Saddam Hussein, good riddance to 2003. As years go, it was pretty miserable. In fact, so far the whole millennium has been a disappointment, a gray era of shaky finances, personal insecurity and terror-driven lawlessness. As much as American military may dominate the world, the reality is that we've all been feeling a certain lack of confidence, a sense that while the 20th century may have been the American Century, our time, like that of the Elves of Middle Earth, has now passed.

Don't believe it. For 2004 is shaping up to be a great year. Rather than another 12 months of the doldrums, it may well be the marker for an American resurgence, a time when the United States will lift itself out of its melancholy in the same spectacular fashion as it did in the 1980s. And the reason for that boils down to one thing: the economy.

I know. You probably thought that 2003 was a down year because Ben and Jennifer never managed to tie the knot, or because Theo and the Red Sox let us down so awfully in October. But I suspect that none of us really thought the missed nuptials were true love denied and let's face it, the Sox didn't do anything much different than they have for the last 85 years.

No, something deeper was at play.

The lesson we should draw from the last few years is that the state of the economy is fundamental. It's more than shorthand for the size of one's bank account or the flashiness of one's car. Instead, it relates directly to the human psyche, to our sense of who we are and the possibilities of our own lives.

This is hardly a new observation.

Psychologist Abraham Maslow argued in the 1960s that people have a "hierarchy of human needs." Until basic needs, such as food, shelter, security and the like are satisfied, people are essentially unable to "self actualize."

In other words, it is only with a strong economy that we can realize fully our own humanity.

And whether you blame Clinton, Bush or the automatic cycles of expansion and contraction, it is quite clear the economy over the last few years has been weak. Wealth decreased. The Internet dreams of the 1990s turned out to be fantasies. Millions lost jobs while even more millions had to settle for part-time or second-rate work. We turned our attention away from our higher aspirations and toward the more immediate struggle to survive.

No more. Even the most pessimistic of us must concede that the long hoped for recovery is at hand.

The erratic markets have stabilized and they are all pointing strongly upward (the NASDAQ, perhaps the best measure of the technology side of the economy, climbed during the year by an astonishing 57 percent from its March 11 low).

The well-respected Conference Board predicts that 2004 will see the creation of 2 million new jobs and it expects the new year to be - from an economic standpoint - the best in the last 20.

So, tonight, celebrate. Drink some methode champenoise bubbly rather than the cheaper charmat bulk process. Yell, sing and welcome the New Year knowing that you don't need to hope for a win in the lottery to achieve some financial success.

But remember two things. One is that a strong economy is not an end but rather an opportunity. The second is that it should be an opportunity open to all.

One easy prediction for 2004 is that we will start to see once again the tiresome news stories that mindlessly celebrate wealth: the restaurant that opens with no entree priced under $35, the sudden shortage of Jaguars available for purchase, the reborn fascination with building the neighborhood's biggest McMansion. Such stories are understandable but disturbing if we take them too seriously.

To define our lives by the things we own is to miss the real chance a strong economy gives us.

Maslow didn't guarantee self-actualization if we satisfied our basic needs. He only said it was a possibility.

But even in the best of times, too many people are deprived of those possibilities. The level of poverty in the United States is high. About 12 percent are consistently poor, with nearly a third of the nation's population living close to the edge. Changing that doesn't mean redistributing wealth, however (which often ends up being counterproductive). Instead, it means giving people the tools they need to participate in the economic mainstream.

One way to do that is to enforce fairness, so that people are not denied opportunities because of their gender, race or ethnicity. The other is through education, with a particular emphasis on urban education.

The new year is offering us a great gift.

Our challenge will be to make something of it.

Talk back to Tom Keane at tomkeane@tomkeane.com.