Good news. The recession is over.

How do I know? There are, of course, the traditional indicators. The Dow Jones Industrial Index, wobbling about for a while, now seems headed upward; consumers tell pollsters they are more confident; manufacturing indicators appear to be looking up; and Alan Greenspan's remarks sound less pessimistic than usual.

Still, we've been burned by these before. I have a better way of knowing. The recession is over because the media have finally announced that the recession has arrived.

Call it the counter-media index. It works like this: Whatever the popular media are telling you about the economy is wrong. If the press starts going on about how everyone is buying yachts, McDonald's can't find workers even at $8 an hour and people are quitting their jobs to become day-traders, then you can be certain that the recession has already started.

On the other hand, when the gloom-and-doom stories hit the cover pages of the news magazines, you can be equally certain that, unbeknownst to everyone, the good times are just around the corner.

Sure enough, those stories are now upon us. Time magazine, still a cultural arbiter of sorts, just ran a ``Hey, Where's My Raise?'' cover story. In the local newspapers you'll find tales about the newly jobless joining unemployment support groups, people scraping by even when holding two jobs and fears that the out-of-work will live shorter, sicker lives.

All of which means, according to my theory, that the recovery has begun.

(I realize there's a flaw with this argument. Since I'm writing this as part of the media, then the counter-media theory would predict that I too must be wrong. On the other hand, if I'm wrong, then - according to the theory - I must be right, leading one down an Alice-in-Wonderland rabbit-hole of endless logical contradictions.)

There's a serious idea behind the counter-media index. It takes time for major changes in an economy to percolate their way through society. An economy may start to shrink but it will take a couple of years before businesses react and begin to squeeze suppliers, cut back on spending and lay off staff. That's when the media wake up and discover those economic statistics we've all been seeing are actually affecting real people.

But oddly enough, it's that very cost-cutting by businesses that usually indicates economic growth lies ahead. Cost-cutting is what businesses do to trim operations that grew fat and lazy during the last economic boom.

The converse is true as well. It takes a while for the good times to hit the citizen on the street. The recession technically may be over, but it's still going to be a long while before we start talking again about labor shortages.

And what, you're probably asking, does this mean if, say, you happen to be president of the United States or governor of Massachusetts? (OK, so you're not asking. I'll tell you anyway.)

A classic example of the counter-media phenomenon occurred in 1992 when the first George Bush was running for re-election. Dire stories about the sad state of the U.S. economy were everywhere. Bill Clinton seized on them, excoriating Bush with his ``It's the economy, stupid'' theme.

Poor Bush. In fact, the recovery had already begun. It was just that no one knew.

George W. faces the same problem next year. By the time of the election, the economic numbers should be strong. But will it have hit the media? If so, then Bush is a shoo-in. If not then, like his dad, he faces real peril.

And Mitt Romney? Romney came into office with a seemingly thankless task: slashing the budget and presiding over the dismantling of large parts of Massachusetts' much-prized social safety net.

What rotten luck, you may think. In fact, though, Romney's timing couldn't have been better. By the time the next election rolls around - 2006 - the economic boom will have been going for a while, and pundits will doubtless be proclaiming yet again that growth will go on forever. Romney will get all the credit. Some will bitterly remember the cuts he imposed, of course. Most will simply think he managed through tough times. And with state tax collections climbing (both because more taxpayers will be employed and because capital gains will increase) he'll be able to make new friends by doling out dollars to those he had earlier cut.

And how about if you're not president or governor, less worried about elections than just trying to make ends meet? By all means, enjoy the soon-to-be boom times. But a few words of advice: Nothing lasts forever. Don't bet your retirement on high-flying stocks of companies that don't show a profit. And save up for the rainy day that's sure to come again.

Talk back to Tom Keane at tomkeane@tomkeane.com.