On Arnold coattails Mitt's hopes rest

by Thomas Keane, Jr.
Wednesday, August 13, 2003

Accusing California Gov. Gray Davis of telling True Lies and giving the state a Raw Deal, outraged Republicans demanded a Total Recall. They wanted a Running Man who would be Davis' Eraser, someone who would Stay Hungry through the End of Days of the campaign. Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, saying he would be the regular Joe's Last Chance, offered himself as Terminator. ``Davis has been no better than a Kindergarten Cop,'' Schwarzenegger said. ``Let me be your Commando in chief.''

OK, you get the idea. The puns can go on forever. Yet, it would be a mistake to think that bad humor is all that Arnold's run merits. For one, the actor's candidacy dramatically increases the odds Davis will lose the recall. In addition, despite the gibes, Schwarzenegger can win. And if he does, the implications for national politics - and even Massachusetts - could be significant.

Granted, California's recall law is stupid, unfair, badly written and easily abused. Yet all of the outrage is tempered by one thing: Gray Davis himself.

In looks, there could be no more perfectly named politician: bland features, white hair and a presence that seems to fade into background. Davis won office through an unprecedentedly nasty negative campaign, his main political attribute seems to be an ability to raise money (allegedly while crossing over ethical lines) and voters blame him for a budget crisis so severe it makes Massachusetts' own shortfall seem like an adding error.

In other words, he's an easy man to dislike.

Still, Davis stood a decent chance of winning the recall. That's because voters face two questions on Oct. 7. The first will be a simple thumbs-up or thumbs-down on Davis. The second will ask them to choose the new governor (should Davis lose on the first question) from a lengthy list of candidates - at least 155 and not including Davis.

Do the math. In theory, Davis could lose the recall with 49 percent of the vote and then someone could become governor with less than 1 percent of the vote. That's bizarre and scary. One could imagine Davis' campaign urging voters to keep the creep they know (that would be Davis) for fear of a creep they don't know at all.

Schwarzenegger changes all that. His instant front-runner status is driven by name recognition. Yet if he can sustain the perception that he's credible - a sane alternative to Davis - then the odds are people will feel more comfortable recalling the incumbent.

Which is why Davis' campaign over the next eight weeks won't be about his record of success but rather an extended attack on Schwarzenegger and any other prominent pol in the race. If Davis can keep the field confused, his chances of winning climb.

And just how credible is Schwarzenegger?

His action-hero resume certainly shouldn't give anyone confidence. The ability to read some lines says nothing about one's intelligence, knowledge or leadership qualities.

Still, being an actor doesn't mean one can't be an effective politician (Ronald Reagan and Fred Thompson proved that). And the buzz about Schwarzenegger is that he is more than just pumped-up brawn. He follows politics, he knows issues and he is a smart businessman.

On the other hand, Schwarzenegger's comments to date about California's issues have been lame rehashes of lines from his movies. And the actor has some baggage of his own: In ``Pumping Iron,'' he smoked marijuana and he carried naked women on his shoulders; the roles he has played involve killing an inordinate number of people and, now aged 56, he just appeared nude in ``Terminator 3.'' (In many places these would be liabilities; perhaps not in California.)

And what if Schwarzenegger survives Davis' attacks? Last year's California GOP primary was a culture-war clash between moderate Richard Riordan (the former L.A. mayor) and conservative Bill Simon. Simon won, in part because Davis, seeing him as the weaker candidate, intervened in the primary by running attack ads on Riordan.

But Schwarzenegger is no conservative. His politics seem more like those of Northeast liberal Republicans: tolerant on social issues such as gay rights and abortion, middle-of-the-road on economic issues. It's a wing of Republicanism many national ``movement'' Republicans abhor.

And that bodes well for Mitt Romney.

Yes, Mitt Romney. While it's no secret Romney would love to run for president, his moderate brand of business-style Republicanism doesn't fit well within the national party right now. Given California's size and prominence, however, a win by Schwarzenegger couldn't help but affect the balance of power within the GOP. Schwarzenegger can't be president (he's foreign born). But he and his politics very well may prove a critical ally for a Massachusetts governor eyeing the White House.

Talk back to Tom Keane at tomkeane@tomkeane.com.