Sheriff's election may turn explosive
It's hard to
know what to make of the upcoming Democratic primary for Suffolk County
sheriff. It could be a small and sleepy affair, overshadowed by the Democratic
National Convention and the November presidential race. Or
- and I think more likely - it could become an explosive contest, chock full of
charges about loyalty, integrity, competence, gender and (
It all depends on how the candidates frame the election.
Here's how Andrea Cabral, on the job for just 15 months, thinks of it: The professional vs. the politician.
In 2002, Sheriff Richard Rouse left his post amidst allegations of mismanagement and patronage. Acting Gov. Jane Swift picked Cabral. Many thought it an inspired choice. A lawyer, successful prosecutor and one-time staff attorney at the Charles Street Jail, Cabral seemed the antithesis of Rouse, picked for her competence and not her connections. And it didn't hurt that Cabral was African- American. Republicans saw her as a way of broadening their appeal.
Cabral now lays
claim to some solid results: a renewed sense of professionalism, improved
morale at the jail (among the guards, that is - the prisoners are as unhappy as
ever), and a more efficient operation. Thus, her campaign theme: Competence
matters. You don't fire an employee who is doing the job right. On top of that,
Cabral's challenger will be Stephen Murphy, an at-large
And if this were a regular job, Cabral probably would be secure. But we elect our sheriffs (it's hard to understand why; after all, we don't elect police commissioners), and that changes everything.
Murphy is a
consummate street-level politician. On the council since 1997, he has worked
assiduously to build his political organization. In 2002, he ran for state
treasurer and while he lost statewide, he easily won in
Murphy frames the sheriff's race this way: He's the real Democrat.
The Sept. 14 election is a primary, after all, and to the casual observer it may seem curious that a Republican appointee is running as a Democrat at all.
Indeed it is. When Cabral interviewed for the job, she agreed to become a Republican. Paul Jacobsen, Swift's chief secretary, says he asked Cabral for assurances that she would run in 2004 as a Republican as well. "She specifically told me that she would and that she was looking forward to carrying the Republican banner," he says.
Six months later, Cabral jumped ship. By her own account, she did so because she felt slighted by the Romney administration. She wasn't getting her calls returned and so left in a fit of pique.
Pique is not the same as principle, however, a point Murphy hammers on. He too was interviewed by the Swift administration for the sheriff's job. Unlike Cabral, however, Murphy refused to join the GOP (a point Jacobsen confirms). "I couldn't turn my back on my party and the values (it) stands for," Murphy says.
That may be the only message Murphy needs.
That's because it is entirely possible the sheriff's job will be the only race on the September ballot. It will hardly be a big draw and that likely means turnout will be low. As is typical in primaries, those who vote will be mostly senior citizens, city workers or union members. It's a conservative, largely white and - most importantly - staunchly Democratic electorate that not only knows Murphy and likes him, but also will be put off by Cabral's shifting party loyalties.
Does this doom Cabral?
Not necessarily. For the race could become framed in a far different way: Martin vs. Malone.
In 1994,
Suffolk District Attorney Ralph Martin - black, liberal
and picked by a GOP governor - ran for election against conservative, white
Democrat Gerry Malone. Instead of being seen as
Democrat vs. Republican, however, the race morphed into new
The parallels with Cabral are obvious. Except, ironically, for one. Cabral is no longer a Republican.
Martin won because, as a Republican, he was able to run in a GENERAL election. Turnout in general elections is not only higher, but also different: Minorities, progressives and independents - all more likely to favor Cabral and less concerned about party labels - tend not to vote in primaries but (this presidential year especially) do come out in November.
Of course, that won't help Cabral. There's a weak chance her campaign can get new voters on primary day, but that's an extraordinarily hard challenge. Cabral may thus find herself on the losing end of a campaign where Murphy's strengths - retail politics and field organization - matter the most.
Talk back to Tom Keane at TomKeane@TomKeane.com.