Kerry may give pols bigger fish to fry

10 March 2004
 

Now that John Kerry's nomination is assured, politicians statewide are looking forward to the genuine possibility he may become president and wondering, "What's in it for me?"

Just kidding. Of course, they're really thinking, "What an excellent opportunity to extend health care to the uninsured, reduce childhood poverty and really make America a land of opportunity for all." But amidst these noble thoughts are ruminations about jobs and elections. That's because a Kerry win has the potential to cause seismic shifts in the state's political landscape - and every pol worth his or her salt is busy figuring out the fault lines.

Remember the drawing they used to show you in high school biology, the one with the small fish being chased by a larger fish, which is in turn chased by an even larger fish? That, in reverse, is what will happen if Kerry wins in November. It's the political food chain: One open seat will attract a swarm of politicians looking to move up a notch. Their open seats, in turn, will attract a swarm of others and so on down the line.

It's a rare opportunity. Quite rare. For as much as we like to think of politics in Massachusetts as some sort of blood sport, the fact is we don't have a lot of fights. The typical pattern in Massachusetts is quite simple. Battles for open seats - that is, where there is no incumbent - are fierce. Otherwise, there is no race.

Some examples:

Massachusetts has 10 congressmen. The most recently elected is Stephen Lynch, who succeeded the late Joe Moakley. Lynch won the nomination in a special election, getting 40 percent of the vote in a six-person race. Yet in 2002, he faced a meaningless challenge from a fringe candidate; this year, he probably gets a free ride.

In 1998, Michael Capuano won the primary in the 8th District, getting just 23 percent of the vote in a 10-person field (I was one of the ignominious nine left behind). Despite the narrowness of that margin, he hasn't had a worry in the two elections since.

And, for the most part, so it goes: Ten seats; 10 sinecures.

The same is true at the local level. Sure, an open seat becomes a great contest; we just saw that with the tussle over Cheryl Jacques' vacated state Senate seat. And sometimes big issues or unusual circumstances can even provoke a primary battle (just ask Dedham's Maryanne Lewis, who lost in 2002 over her close ties to House Speaker Thomas Finneran).

But for the most part, once you win, all you need do is tend to your constituents and keep your nose clean. Manage that, and getting re-elected is about as difficult as passing a driver's test.

If you're a pol, this can become frustrating: You find yourself sitting around, stuck in your job for too long, waiting for the occupant of a slot above you to die, retire or otherwise move on.

Which is what makes the prospect of a Kerry win so exciting. President Kerry, obviously, would no longer be Sen. Kerry. That possibility already has provoked some infighting as legislators are trying to change the rules to force a special election rather than allow Gov. Mitt Romney to appoint a successor. (As an aside, pols are torn on this one. A special election allows incumbents - such as members of Congress - to run for Kerry's seat without giving up their current jobs. On the other hand, a Romney appointment followed by a regular election forces incumbents to leave their existing positions in order to run, creating the prospect of even more available seats for those down the political food chain.)

But it gets even better. For a Kerry presidency holds the prospect of hundreds of new jobs in Washington, D.C. Pols who once loved making jokes at the senator's expense (which is to say everyone who ever attended the St. Patrick's Day breakfast in South Boston) are now desperately trying to make amends, hoping to curry favor.

Imagine the possibilities. Steve Lynch - now traveling the country talking up Kerry to unions - as secretary of Labor. The Cable Guy - Rep. Ed Markey - heading up the Federal Communications Commission. Boston Mayor Tom Menino running the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Indeed, local pols everywhere are now burnishing their resumes, dreaming of taking their talents ("my three years as chair of the town's school committee") and applying them to the national stage ("have provided me with a deep understanding of the issues that daily confront the Office of Elementary and Secondary Education at the Department of Education").

Don't believe me? Back in 1988, when Michael Dukakis was the nominee, it seemed like half the state had already booked a move to D.C. with United Van Lines. The other half was planning to run for the jobs they were leaving behind.

And so it is in 2004. Eight months until the election, but the salivating has already begun.

 

Talk back to Tom Keane at tomkeane@tomkeane.com