Convention to show Bush still has bounce

27 August 2004

John Kerry didn't get much of a bounce from his convention. But next week, George Bush very well may.

Democrats already are girding themselves for that prospect. Kerry pollster Mark Mellman is warning that Bush has "substantial room to bounce." Some of that may be spin, of course - an effort to play the expectations game. Yet there is good reason to believe that the president will conclude his convention ahead of Kerry in the polls.

After months of attacks, doubts and (largely self-inflicted) wounds, the fundamental rationale for Bush's presidency - his vision, if you will - has been drowned out in the welter of charges and countercharges. But in New York, Bush will be in the spotlight, able to make his case. Moreover, he may have the help of hundreds of thousands of people. Not the Republican delegates, mind you. The demonstrators. For if events turn nasty and violent, voters will be driven back to Bush not just by his smooth words but also for fear of the alternative.

Polls immediately after the Boston convention showed little improvement in Kerry's standing. (A Gallup poll, in fact, claimed there was a "negative bounce," with Kerry actually losing ground.) That wasn't unexpected. Although some pollsters had been predicting a modest bounce, political insiders had been wary all along. They had noted that network coverage was limited, the number of undecideds was small and that Kerry in a sense had already experienced a bounce in the months beforehand, with his unchallenged status as the presumptive nominee allowing Democrats to rally behind him early.

Yet if one tracks the various national polls since then, it seems that while Kerry did not get a bounce, he did solidify his support. Call it a dribble. At the end of July, for example, an average of eight national polls showed Kerry ahead of Bush by just 1.9 points. By mid-August, he was up by 3.3 points. That's not a dramatic change, but it's still meaningful. And although a handful of recent polls shows Kerry slipping somewhat (probably because of the false but effective Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ads), the Republican National Convention nevertheless kicks off with the sour knowledge that the president is clearly behind.

It won't stay that way.

With the exception of New Jersey Gov. James McGreevey, it is hard to imagine any politician who has lately had a worse time of it than George Bush. Job creation is weak and Iraq remains problematic. Waves of bad stories - from prisoner abuse to the 9/11 commission - have buffeted the administration. Kerry and John Edwards have maintained a drumbeat of criticism while sketching out an appealing theme of "stronger at home, respected in the world." Sure, the GOP (and its surrogates) has done a good job of tearing down Kerry, yet it hasn't been effective in building up Bush. Indeed, what is surprising in all this is that Kerry is not farther ahead. Most likely that's because the loss of trust in the president has not been replaced by an attendant boost in confidence in his challenger.

Next week will be Bush's opportunity to restore that trust. In the midst of gibes about his intellect, disengagement from his job and verbal gaffes, many of us forget just how good Bush was during the 2000 campaign. He speaks well. He has an ability to connect with people. And one can be sure that his acceptance speech will be a well-crafted argument that justifies his administration and lays out a vision for the next four years. We'll hear about leadership, compassion and decisiveness. Many will scoff, but others who are on the fence will find the whole thing captivating. Uncomfortable with Kerry, they will find themselves pulled back into the fold.

The result? A Bush bounce.

Taken alone, however, that's not a lot to worry about. Bounces go up and down. It's only a speech, after all. By the end of September, the glow of the convention will have faded, supplanted by new events such as the presidential debates.

Potentially more significant in their effect, though, will be the massive demonstrations planned.

During their convention, the Democrats went to great lengths to present themselves as clear-eyed moderates. Determined to win over middle-of-the-road swing voters, they kept Bush-bashing to a minimum and safely tucked away the party's more radical elements.

It may be that next week's protesters will be peaceful and good- natured, holding hands and singing "Kumbayah." But there's a good chance that the demonstrations will turn crude and ugly. If so, fairly or unfairly, Democrats will get the blame. The swing voters so carefully wooed in Boston will recoil, revolted by what many will perceive as undisguised hatred and anti-Americanism. If 2004 in New York starts to look a lot like 1968 in Chicago, Bush's bounce will be higher and longer lasting.